The southwest monsoon hit the coast of Kerala on Monday as expected, and India is expected to experience normal rainfall during the critical four-month rainy season, the government meteorological service said, hoping for a record harvest this year, a rare ray of hope in a virus-damaged economy.

Precipitation during the rainy season from June to September will be 102% of the 50-year average with a model error of plus or minus 4%, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said Monday. This is more than our own forecast for April, which was 100% of the 50-year average, indicating that conditions have changed for the better.

Heavy monsoon rains are crucial for Indian farmers as they irrigate more than half of the country’s farmland without any guarantee of irrigation. More than 60% of the country’s 1.3 billion people depend on agriculture. A good harvest will also help to curb the rise in food prices.

While the rains usually bring joy to rural India, floods can wreak havoc and make it even more difficult to control a coronavirus pandemic in fragile states such as Kerala and Maharashtra.

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More than 60% of the country’s 1.3 billion people depend on agriculture. A good harvest will also help to curb the rise in food prices.

According to meteorologists, the state of the ocean is favourable for a good monsoon this year. The temperature of the sea surface, which affects the monsoon, is lower than normal, indicating the phenomenon of La Nina, where the water in the tropical Pacific is cooler than normal and favours a good monsoon compared to India. Another oceanic phenomenon, the dipole in the Indian Ocean, is also neutral and is likely to remain so.

Today we announced the monsoon attack in Kerala under favorable conditions, IMD CEO Mohapatra told the journalists.

For Kerala, large amounts of rain are predicted for the next three days. More than 80% of IMD stations recorded more than 2.5 mm of precipitation, he added.

We expect a good spatial distribution in the country during this monsoon period. India as a whole will be responsible for 102 percent; 107 percent in northwest India; 103 percent in central India; 102 percent in the south of the peninsula; 96 percent in the northeast, said Madawan Nair Rajewan, secretary of the Ministry of Geosciences. Rainfall in July, which is crucial for the summer harvest, is expected to be 103 per cent of the 50-year national average, he added.

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Precipitation Forecast

La Nina’s peak activity is also expected, especially in the second half of the monsoon season, he said. There is a 41% chance that the monsoon is normal and a 14% chance that it is excessive. The chance that it is insufficient (5%) is very small, says Rajewan.

These events take place against a backdrop of declining growth rates in India, which is in a state of crisis following the blockade since the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Iron Curtain. Falling back to a certain normality.

India grew by 3.1%, the lowest in 11 years. In March, the last quarter for which data was available, the exhibition showed a growth of 30%. Mei. Economists agreed that the Indian economy will go through its worst recession in at least 40 years and that the budget deficit will be reduced by at least 5 percent, according to the report.

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